weather forecast says film shoot date is raining, do i pull the plug?

24 hours ago the forecast said sunny with 10% chance of rain. now it says its going to be full-on raining with 90% chance of rain. my film shoot is next saturday august 29. the video im shooting has family "contestants" in it so they can decide to not show up if they dont want to. i doubt they would show up if it was dark, cloudy, and raining. im also renting a lot of equipment, trucks, catering etc. is the weather forecast reliable 9 days out? if i cancel now I would have only wasted around $1500. if i take a chance and hope it doesnt rain and show up to the shoot and it rains, then i lose $8000. what do you think i should do?
 
Your profile says you're in LA - is that right?
If so, you are surrounded by actors (same for me in NYC).

REPLACE HIM if he can't do it.

Believe me, I've improvised a ton of solutions and I'm not saying these things lightly.

hahaha, i'm in vancouver BC right now and I guess it's kind of a mini-LA here. I wanted to reschedule this for the week after and one of my actors said he couldnt do it, I think i'm going to end up trying to replace him and keeping the main one.

It's definitely going to rain this saturday and right now i'm focused on putting all my chips on the table and just trying to get something made from it.

The week after it says its going to be sunny again but I don't know if I trust bullshit weather reports anymore.
 
Did you shoot? How did it go?

I didnt film. I had to cancel because it was rly bad weather, trees falling over.

It's turning into a shit show with finding a time that everyone can show up now. I've switched the date with the insurance and park 2 times now and I'm going to have to do it a 3rd time.

I'm considering moving on to something else now.
 
Why is it a shit show, because you need to reschedule?

I don't know what it is: you seem impatient and easily discouraged.
You want to be filmmaker, right?
Then don't give up!
You've got everything in place: script, location, vision.
All you still need is a shooting date and good weather.
I know it can be hard to plan for the weather: I've been there many times before and I will be there many times again.

Cheer up!
You are almost there!
 
Why is it a shit show, because you need to reschedule?

I don't know what it is: you seem impatient and easily discouraged.
You want to be filmmaker, right?
Then don't give up!
You've got everything in place: script, location, vision.
All you still need is a shooting date and good weather.
I know it can be hard to plan for the weather: I've been there many times before and I will be there many times again.

Cheer up!
You are almost there!

Thanks! The scheduling has just turned into a major problem and it's demotivating me because I know the weather is going to get worse soon. It was supposed to be filmed in the summer but now it looks like it has to be shot in fall.
 
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