How Long Do Movie Theaters Have?

How Long Do Movie Theaters Have to be Viable?

How long before technological and economic realities kill movie theaters, consigning them to little more than a nostalgic display at the Smithsonian?

Consider how rapidly the brick and mortar business of renting videos retracted.

This is a really interesting interview, anyway.

Charlie Rose: Jeff Bewkes, CEO Time Warner Inc.

I don't have a head for, or an education in, business, but let me try to ask this anyway.

Charlie sort of asks this question of Jeff Bewkes in the above interview.

The conversation about this sort of begins at about 16:00. It warms up at about 17:20. It heats up at about 17:50. At about 19:00 Mr. Bewkes says something to the effect that we are all trying to do this in a way that doesn't undermind the theaters.

But, come on. Why? Is the theater business actually important to Warner and the others in the present and in the future that's now taking shape, or is he really just expressing a sentiment? And how much influence does sentimenality ultimately have in business?

It's smokin' at about 19:08.

Ahhhhhh, allowing a delay for theaters to show films and sell a lot of tickets creates a gap for piracy. Hmmmm.

He says you don't want theaters to disappear, which I'm sure is a very reasonable thing for him to say. But, am I the only one who can't help but suspect that he's speaking a necessary pleasantry or a platitude?

So, it's already happening to a small extent, right? I rented Melancholia streaming when it was just out in first run theaters. More recently, I was tempted to rent Arbitrage, but haven't yet. I hesitate to mention it because I don't know what its state of release really is or was, when, where, or how, but I was willing to pay a rental premium to see Soloman Kane which was supposedly before a release here in the states. Did such a release ever happen? Heh-heh.

Of course, we're talking about Melancholia and Arbitrage, not The Avengers or The Hobbit. But, they're dabbling, it seems?

So, as the phone and cable companies continue to expand their infrastructures for delivery of broadband, as more and more areas and neighborhoods get broadband and wifi and whatever, and more and more of their content streaming, when do the movie theaters become unsustainable dinosaurs?

Hey, I've become an old fogie, myself, who grew up in this era in which movie theaters were a cherished part of life. I don't want them to go. It seems very sad to me. But, I'm wondering if the writing is on the wall. Looking at what happened to brick and mortar video rental stores, can a similar fate be far off for theaters?

Also, I wouldn't hold my breath. But, in a future in which you don't need to get your film in many theaters across the country or across the world to achieve box office success, could that level the playing field for indie filmmakers? I doubt that the Big Boys would actually allow that, but just wondering.
 
We will always have cinemas. Will some close? Yep. But the experience of being in a packed crowd reacting appropriately cannot be lived in front of my computer or even in a decent home cinema environment. Not to mention the fact that we're never gonna be able to fit the likes of cinema screens like IMAX in our lounge rooms....
 
Bring back the Drive in ;)

Seriously though, I think traditional cinemas will eventually downsize, and you'll start to see a proliferation of 'novelty' cinema like outdoor cinema, IMAX, or even possibly dome projection cinema and/or the drive in again.

I think for a theatre to survive, it's going to have to come up with something more to offer than just a screen and some high ticket and candy bar prices.
People's home theatre screens are getting bigger, HD projectors are coming down in price (and eventually 2K and 4K projectors will proliferate), and home theatre sound systems are getting better and cheaper.

I used to be of the view that the experience of the theatre is something that will never go away, but the cinema experience is diminishing more and more, and the home cinema experience is getting better and better..
 
Damn, I like your questions....

I'll start this by asking this: Name 1 DVD/BR movie that hit number #1 in sales that wasn't a box office blockbuster.

But, come on. Why? Is the theater business actually important to Warner and the others in the present and in the future that's now taking shape, or is he really just expressing a sentiment? And how much influence does sentimenality ultimately have in business?

Is it important? Yes. There's a typical split of money that a studio gets from a movie. Its usually 40% Cinema, 40% Home Entertainment, 20% TV. I'm sure you've heard of release windows. It's part of the method that studios use to get consumers to purchase the same thing multiple times to increase their revenue.

Often the Home Entertainment and TV revenue is linked to cinema revenue. Cutting out the cinema revenue often means that the other revenue is cut by a similar amount. For instance, selling a movie to a tv station is usually done on a sliding scale linked to the performance at the box office.

It's not sentimentality, it's part their business structure that they've developed over many years designed to extract the maximum revenue from their consumers.


He says you don't want theaters to disappear, which I'm sure is a very reasonable thing for him to say. But, am I the only one who can't help but suspect that he's speaking a necessary pleasantry or a platitude?

Don't get me wrong. Studios will drop cinemas in a heartbeat if they found another business model which allows them to make more money than they currently do. Currently, they don't have another business model which would work better (or as well).


So, it's already happening to a small extent, right? I rented Melancholia streaming when it was just out in first run theaters. More recently, I was tempted to rent Arbitrage, but haven't yet. I hesitate to mention it because I don't know what its state of release really is or was, when, where, or how, but I was willing to pay a rental premium to see Soloman Kane which was supposedly before a release here in the states. Did such a release ever happen? Heh-heh.

Of course, we're talking about Melancholia and Arbitrage, not The Avengers or The Hobbit. But, they're dabbling, it seems?

This is just my extrapolation (though I don't know Melancholia) but movies like Arbitrage and The Vamps getting digital distribution at the same time (or earlier) than a cinema release are probably either a test or an attempt to make some money back from a poor movie (or both) without throwing good money after bad and using that to extrapolate some data on how both cinemas feel about multiple platform releases and how it affects box office results. If they're looking at this as a test, I think they're far away from getting real results since the results come from marketing a good product.

Of course they're not going to do it for The Avengers or The Hobbit. They have a system that maximizes their earnings and they're not going to risk it with their sure things.


when do the movie theaters become unsustainable dinosaurs?

When they no longer deliver the desired results.


Hey, I've become an old fogie, myself, who grew up in this era in which movie theaters were a cherished part of life. I don't want them to go. It seems very sad to me. But, I'm wondering if the writing is on the wall. Looking at what happened to brick and mortar video rental stores, can a similar fate be far off for theaters?

While I cannot speak for the US, but over here Rental stores are still operating, but from what I can tell, they're hurting. Rental prices here in Australia are in the $8-$10 range (Someone confirm that, since its been a long time since I've rented). You can go down to the store and pick up a DVD/BR for $10 (though the new movies are more expensive, some as much as $30 here). Anyway, $10 for a rental is the reason they're dying here. Although here we don't have Netflix, which I suspect is a big reason video stores aren't working as well in the US. A better business model came out and put them out of business?

There are always going to be people who enjoy the movie going experience. Going out to the theater and watching on the big screen.


in a future in which you don't need to get your film in many theaters across the country or across the world to achieve box office success, could that level the playing field for indie filmmakers? I doubt that the Big Boys would actually allow that, but just wondering.

Independents can already achieve box office success. The big boys make most of their profits from distribution anyway. If you make a great movie that they can invest in and bring to market, with a great hook that they believe they will profit from, they'll distribute it. The trick is, you have to work out what that is... that is if you want to use the studios distribution infrastructure. You could always go it alone and do it solo... all it takes is the right contacts, the right knowledge and enough money to make it work.

Edit: Jax also makes a very good point, home cinemas are improving. This has already changed how people want to consume their entertainment. Though, release windows reduces peoples abilities to consume what they want, when they want it. In the first 4 months, you need to see it in the cinema/airline/prison/ships at sea/hotel. After 4 months you can enjoy it in your home cinema.... well at least legally. 6 months if you live in France.
 
Last edited:
D

While I cannot speak for the US, but over here Rental stores are still operating, but from what I can tell, they're hurting. Rental prices here in Australia are in the $8-$10 range (Someone confirm that, since its been a long time since I've rented). You can go down to the store and pick up a DVD/BR for $10 (though the new movies are more expensive, some as much as $30 here). Anyway, $10 for a rental is the reason they're dying here. Although here we don't have Netflix, which I suspect is a big reason video stores aren't working as well in the US. A better business model came out and put them out of business?

Where I live in Australia, I rarely rent but I walk past them all the time and I thought it about $5.50 new release overnight hire.
 
Mojitos on demand. I like the sound of that. If only I liked them. I finally and recently tried one. Bucket list thing, I'd say. Unfortunately, it wasn't for me. Here's my vision: I'm enjoying a movie at your theater, you push a button and they bring you your mojitos, I push a button and they bring me long islands. We'll need a designated driver. =)

I like your answers, Sweetie. (And everyone's!) :)
 
I like watching movies on a huge screen, with huge speakers and a lot of cheering people! No matter how good my home system might be, I can't take it with me when I travel. My favorite thing to do, when travelling, is to catch a movie or two. Um, it's also my favorite thing to do when I don't travel. :lol:

As far as renting, people went to brick and mortar stores to bring a movie home. They still bring a movie home, but it may be via download. The result is almost the same.
 
I think they'll stay around - I'm sure people were asking the same thing when talkies came out and started to take people away from the local theater plays
 
I had to wade through the Twilight premiere on my way out of work (I work at a theater)... shoulder to shoulder people in our 17 screen cineplex... I'm not that worried. People still want (and get excited about) the cinema experience.

Our theater also allows you to bring your drinks in with you from the on site restaurant.
 
My hometown has a great cinema drive-in. It's always packed and it's great!! 2 new release flicks for $5. Drive-ins are wayyyy cool! :)
 
How Long Do Movie Theaters Have to be Viable?

How long before technological and economic realities kill movie theaters, consigning them to little more than a nostalgic display at the Smithsonian?
I figure they will last about 40 years longer than live theater...
 
I figure they will last about 40 years longer than live theater...

I think the major difference is you can't download live theatre. You can't stream it cheaply and watch it in high quality in your living room.

Live theatre will last for as long as people are willing to pay to see it. The same cannot really be said about the cinema, as paying to see a movie doesn't necessarily mean at a cinema these days.

I think realistically, our views are influenced by the fact the we ourselves are filmmakers. How many filmmakers would have said 15 years ago that Kodak would be in administration in 15 years time? How many filmmakers would have said that digital acquisition would become the norm, and that the numbers of movies captured on film would decline so heavily? Who would have said even 5 years ago that Roger Deakins would be shooting almost solely on digital? Or that The Hobbit would be shooting on RED instead of 35mm?

How many people would have predicted that the drive-in would be practically nonexistant 30 years ago?

I think it's hard to predict when a technology or experience is going to become obsolete, but I think it's foolish to assume that something isn't going to become obsolete simply because it's doing well now, or because one enjoys the experience - how many people enjoyed drive-in movies..?
 
I still enjoy drive in movies. I enjoy them so much (and I'm not alone) that I'm working to bring a high end drive in to the greater New Orleans area. There is a fairly strong movement for a resurgence in this area. My drive in would include a convenience store and restaurant. I'd offer carside service for anything from the store or restaurant.
 
Mojitos on demand. I like the sound of that. If only I liked them. I finally and recently tried one. Bucket list thing, I'd say. Unfortunately, it wasn't for me. Here's my vision: I'm enjoying a movie at your theater, you push a button and they bring you your mojitos, I push a button and they bring me long islands. We'll need a designated driver. =)

I like your answers, Sweetie. (And everyone's!) :)

..they also do Long Island Iced Teas, beers, wine, food. They have a sofa section where couples can sit together on what appear to be extremely comfortable sofas and these are great places to go.

Great movies (most importantly), great service, great food, drink, company etc... I love these little movies theatres.

As an idea of how popular these are, I couldn't get to see the new Bond movie there on a Saturday or Sunday for weeks. I had to go to a regular cinema surrounded by chatting, popcorn eating kids (why sell noisy food in a cinema, grrr....) For an adult, I want to go with my partner, chill out, enjoy a romantic moment and these cinemas are absolutely fantastic.
 
Back
Top