A SAG actor told me that SAG can effect the distribution of a film. I didn't believe it at the time. I imagine most of the distributors picking the small indie films aren't heavily effected by SAG. Who at SAG is watching all these thousands of films being released. Any thoughts?
You are correct. SAG does not have anything at all to do with
distribution - how can they know of and watch every single film
distributed and then know what contract the producer had with
them? SAG covers working conditions, benefits and payment for
it's members. A producer must sign their agreement to be bound
by those rules. A producer who does not agree to the SAG contract
cannot be held to their rules.
A SAG member who violates the SAG rules may face sanctions up
to and including expulsion from the guild. In my experience that is
very, very rare. But even that does not affect the producer, the
prodCo or the distribution of the movie.
In the case where a producer who has signed an agreement with
SAG and then violates that agreement, then SAG can put pressure
on the producer. If the producer uses the "Ultra Low" agreement
which allows for deferred pay but no distribution unless payment
to the actors are made, and then violates that agreement, SAG can
sue the producer. But the distributor has made no agreement with
SAG so SAG cannot stop distribution.
If a producer does not sign an agreement with SAG, does not pay
the SAG actor and gets distribution, SAG cannot do anything to the
producer or the distributor. They can only deal with the SAG member.
All the risk is on the actor.