How to research distribution $tati$tic$

Cracker Funk

Cracker Funk

Okay, so when I approach a potential investor, I'm going to be honest with them, and let them know that this is a very risky investment, one that doesn't pay off for most low-budget indie films. But I want to be able to show them the films that DO make money, as examples of the fact that it can be done, and that the return on the investment can be very high.

Some movies are easy enough to research, but only to a limited degree. I've really only been able to find box office numbers, but that number doesn't really matter to my potential investor. All we care about is how much the movie is sold for, to the distributor. And here's the tricky part -- I want to know how much these movies are sold for, to all of their distributors -- domestic and foreign, theater and DVD.

Is there any way to get that info, for lots and lots of movies?
 
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I've had an IMDB Pro account in the past, but I cannot recall if it includes that information.

You could get the 14-day free trial and check! I may re-activate my pro account soon here so if you are still wondering at that time I'll check for you!
 
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How to research distribution $tati$tic$
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It's called SoundScan. I don't know if they cover all DVD's, but I can remember being able to search the DVD's that I looked up. They cover mainly audio album sales.

You'll need to find someone who works at a record company to research DVD titles.
 
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Cracker Funk said:
Yeah, I was wondering about that, but I was hoping somebody who has IMDB Pro might be able to confirm that the info is there, before I commit to the purchase.
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The info's there. We used it when we were putting together our investor/distro materials.

However, half the time the budgets stated are not accurate. Be wary.
 
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Oh, wait, sorry-- there's info on box office and budget numbers.

However, you probably wlll not find much information on how much they were sold to distributors for, unless it was used as press/publicity. T hose numbers are almost always kept lock and key, with an NDA contract and such.

You'd have to get candid with people to find them out.
 
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Kholi said:
Oh, wait, sorry-- there's info on box office and budget numbers.

However, you probably wlll not find much information on how much they were sold to distributors for, unless it was used as press/publicity. T hose numbers are almost always kept lock and key, with an NDA contract and such.

You'd have to get candid with people to find them out.
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Hmm. Okay, thanks for the clarification. Let me ask you this, then (and this question is for anybody who might want to answer it) -- when putting together a presentation for a potential investor, what the heck kind of financial info are we supposed to present them with?

Okay, so the obvious answer is a line-item budget. But what about potential returns on the investment? Do we merely talk hypotheticals, or are there any real hard numbers we can show them? I would think that box office numbers would be misleading, because that's not anything close to the money that the investor would make back on their investment -- all they get is the distribution sales $.

Plus, the box office numbers are for the truly special success-stories. But there is still money to be made, in the straight-to-DVD market, no? So, how do we show the potential for that profit?
 
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Cracker Funk said:
Hmm. Okay, thanks for the clarification. Let me ask you this, then (and this question is for anybody who might want to answer it) -- when putting together a presentation for a potential investor, what the heck kind of financial info are we supposed to present them with?
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Data from movies that are exactly like yours, how they tracked in territories as far as ticket sales, VOD (especially VOD), downloads (amazon, iTunes), and DVD sales. The budget, how much was spent on marketing.

Okay, so the obvious answer is a line-item budget. But what about potential returns on the investment? Do we merely talk hypotheticals, or are there any real hard numbers we can show them? I would think that box office numbers would be misleading, because that's not anything close to the money that the investor would make back on their investment -- all they get is the distribution sales $.
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Box office numbers are the only actual numbers you can show records for. Blurbs like "This movie sold at sundance for 4M" mislead and any smart investor's going to brush that off. BO, VOD, DOwnloads, etc are the only real numbers you can count on unless you have relationships with distributors already.

But, if you did, then you probably wouldn't have to worry about this.
Plus, the box office numbers are for the truly special success-stories. But there is still money to be made, in the straight-to-DVD market, no? So, how do we show the potential for that profit?
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Your materials should include very special cases that are similar to yours, and big cases that are similar to yours. Those with stars attached and the like.

You show the potential for profit through estimations on what the climate's like now, and how those IP's that are similar to yours sold to the audience.

This isn't as important as a very illustrative and detailed Plan of Attack on how you will recoup the total budget (marketing, etc included) and how soon you can project to do it by.

If you're approaching distributors, you should know that they'll already be on your game and you won't be able to sneak anything by them. Private investors are less savvy, but know a dead fish when they smell one.
 
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Kholi -- I'm new to the financial side, so perhaps I've misunderstood something. I don't get why marketing should be included in a budget. Isn't the goal to sell to a distributor, either theatrical or DVD? Wouldn't they handle all the marketing?

And to that end, I still don't see how box office numbers should be of immediate concern to an investor, because the investor only profits from the sale to distributor, regardless of box-office and DVD take, no? Or, is there something I'm missing?

I can see how box office numbers could be a selling-point, from the perspective of saying that this movie and that movie, both of which are similar to mine, made a bunch of cash at the box office, therefore, we are more likely to be able to successfully sell our movie to a distributor.
 
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Cracker Funk said:
Kholi -- I'm new to the financial side, so perhaps I've misunderstood something. I don't get why marketing should be included in a budget. Isn't the goal to sell to a distributor, either theatrical or DVD? Wouldn't they handle all the marketing?
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To be honest, it should be included in a budget at your level because part of what you'll be doing is marketing the feature yourself. You cannot count on a distro to market for you, especially if there aren't any names, etc. And marketing numbers are a factoid of importance.

The goal of the distro is to get your feature film for as cheap as possible and make as much money on it without spending too much more. It sounds a bit more sinister when put like that, but it's really not...

It's just business.

And to that end, I still don't see how box office numbers should be of immediate concern to an investor, because the investor only profits from the sale to distributor, regardless of box-office and DVD take, no? Or, is there something I'm missing?
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Box Office determines how viable your venture is to an investor. If they know what they're getting into, they'll know a distributor cares about BO numbers, and if your content's not doing anything overseas (most importantly) and worse domestically, you aren't getting a distribution deal worth anyone's time.

So, in that light, every number you can dig up is important.


I can see how box office numbers could be a selling-point, from the perspective of saying that this movie and that movie, both of which are similar to mine, made a bunch of cash at the box office, therefore, we are more likely to be able to successfully sell our movie to a distributor.
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That's exactly what it is.
 
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Also, this is why it sucks for us, because there aren't ENOUGH transparent people at our level. You could argue NDA's, but to be honest, there's still info that people could share.

The secrecy is silly as hell. Just because someone knows numbers or how-to's doesn't make them any sort of competition. You still have to MAKE a damned movie worth buying.
 
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Is there any utility in providing genre stats such as THESE to argue why we're making an action horror rather than a black comedy drama (because frankly the adventure action movies are too expensive)?

Or does everybody already know this stuff inside and out?
 
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rayw said:
Is there any utility in providing genre stats such as THESE to argue why we're making an action horror rather than a black comedy drama (because frankly the adventure action movies are too expensive)?

Or does everybody already know this stuff inside and out?
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I'll tell you what -- if you care only about turning a profit, it is my opinion that the genre to tackle is Christian Film. That (very large) audience is starving for quality programming. The only reason I'm not doing that, now, is because I want to make movies that I like to watch, and hopefully I can find a way to turn that into a profession.

But my 2nd feature is the last one I make, in those regards, if it doesn't pan out the way I want it to. I shit you not, if this next movie doesn't work, I'm switching to Christian Films! :)
 
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rayw said:
Is there any utility in providing genre stats such as THESE to argue why we're making an action horror rather than a black comedy drama (because frankly the adventure action movies are too expensive)?

Or does everybody already know this stuff inside and out?
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Yes.

If you're about to do a genre picture (sci-fi, horror, action...almost in that order) then you need to make it VERY clear that it makes your picture SLIGHTLY (slight = big word) easier to move to a lower tier distributor for foreign rights and/or all territories.

I can tell you first hand that I have a tie directly to a few LA based distros, one of the owners is an acquaintance and we pass each other up at my friends post-production house...


I tell you no lies...

... He just sold 30K copies of a REALLY HORRIBLE SCI-FI FEATURE FILM to Target. No names, just lots of cheap-ass creature effects. And he knows it's bad, that's how he makes his money. Sci-Fi is hot genre, and honestly it, like horror, will always have a market around the globe.
 
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Cracker Funk said:
I'll tell you what -- if you care only about turning a profit, it is my opinion that the genre to tackle is Christian Film. That (very large) audience is starving for quality programming. The only reason I'm not doing that, now, is because I want to make movies that I like to watch, and hopefully I can find a way to turn that into a profession.

But my 2nd feature is the last one I make, in those regards, if it doesn't pan out the way I want it to. I shit you not, if this next movie doesn't work, I'm switching to Christian Films! :)
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Should do it sooner than later. That market's supposed to be clamming up due to over saturation, least from what I was told.

You can check my friends feature trailer here: http://www.facebook.com/kiddgoldenarms#!/crossroadthemovie

Take a look at their page fans.

Then check the trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FrWTvrSU4I&feature=player_embedded

Had fun working on this as second unit gaffer. Out of respect for their material, can't talk about budgets and suc, but they're getting in at a time when it's good and with a solid product.

They're also true christians... good guys and true to the material.
 
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